Comment: For someone who loves sparring with the media and his political opponents, Winston Peters can be surprisingly averse to interpersonal conflict.
By most accounts, the New Zealand First leader has a tendency to leave difficult conversations about personnel to other members of his team – a fact that may explain the party’s tendency to reveal its election-year lists at the last minute, as well as the election-year spats that have occasionally taken place with MPs blindsided by their rankings (with Andrew Williams in 2014 and Richard Prosser in 2017).
There were likely some unpleasant surprises for some on the party’s newly released list for the upcoming election, but for the time being, Peters has succeeded in keeping his candidates on message.
New Zealand First was always going to face a challenge incorporating the boldface names recruited for 2026 with the existing caucus members who have spent the last three years advocating for the party.
Novelty seems to have triumphed over loyalty, with former National MPs Alfred Ngaro (5th) and Harete Hipango-Brownlie (7th), ex-Financial Markets Authority chair Craig Stobo (8th) and All Black turned businessman Taine Randell (9th) leaping above current MPs Jenny Marcroft, Andy Foster, Dr David Wilson and Jamie Arbuckle (in 10th through 13th respectively).
On current polling, the latter group have at least a reasonable chance of returning to Parliament which may quell any rebellion – although with the party’s vote share appearing to have peaked in the middle of the year, there may be a few nervous weeks in store.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is the lowly position given to one-time deputy leader and former defence minister Ron Mark, coaxed back for another run after just under two decades in Parliament across two different stints with the party.
There had been speculation that Mark could be in the running to take on the defence portfolio in a second term for the coalition Government. But in 16th spot, it is hard to see him making it in – and equally hard to see why the party encouraged him back for this outcome.
There is also the matter of the candidates brought into the fold to appeal to the more fringe elements of the population, only to see themselves well out of the running.
Some of those conspiracist elements may already have been sceptical about Peters’ commitment to the cause, and would hardly have been reassured by the list rankings.
One name mentioned frequently in New Zealand First’s post about the rankings was former New Conservatives leader and Hobson’s Pledge spokesperson Elliot Ikilei, down in 20th and with little realistic chance of becoming an MP.
But Ikilei himself is showing no signs of dissent, telling Newsroom he felt “absolutely honoured, very humble, and good to go – ready to fight for WP to be the 43rd prime minister of New Zealand”.
Former Whangārei mayor Vince Cocurullo, who made headlines for his refusal to fluoridate the area’s water supply, is likewise serene about being in 31st spot: “I’m extremely happy because at the end of the day, I’m here to represent Whangārei and I’ve made that very, very clear right from the word go.”
“Naturally, I’d like to be in a stronger position to help them achieve [their goals], but there’s some very good people on the list above me, and a lot of things that a party has to consider in balancing various factors.”
Long-time National supporter turned NZ First candidate Martin Gummer is sanguine about being placed 27th on the party’s list.
Cocurullo is already facing an uphill battle to win the Whangārei electorate, and his task will not be made any easier by the nascent vote-splitting campaign for right-wing voters to back Act or New Zealand First with their party vote, and National candidates with their electorate vote.
Former Buller mayor Jamie Cleine (in 14th spot) is likewise arguing he can win the West Coast-Tasman seat he is running for, and tells Newsroom of his ranking: “I think that’s well within an achievable range given how far we’re through in terms of the campaign – there’s obviously a lot of campaign to go, and I like a little bit of a stretch target.”
Cleine says he didn’t expect to be any higher, given the “high-profile capable people that have been announced”, although he hints others beneath him might not be so content: “There’s probably a couple below me that are in a different order than what I thought, but all the ones that are around me are who I thought they would be.”
Long-time National supporter turned NZ First candidate Martin Gummer (27th spot) is the only candidate spoken to by Newsroom to offer any sense of disappointment about their ranking, although it is muted at best.
“Naturally, I’d like to be in a stronger position to help them achieve their goals, but there’s some very good people on the list above me, and a lot of things that a party has to consider in balancing various factors.
“So yes, I just have to accept the situation, and you never know until the chips are in.”
That consistent messaging would seem to bode well for party harmony in the remaining weeks of the campaign, although it is hard to predict when and why a disgruntled candidate might choose to vent their frustration.
New Zealand First may not be on the rocket to the stars that Peters has asked voters to give him, but (for now at least) it isn’t hurtling towards the earth.