When you step outside in the morning, you’ll notice that chill in the air. It’s a reminder that the fall months have arrived, and that typically means the action across the NFL is ramping up. Now that the first month is in the rearview mirror, teams are rounding into form, and we should start to see some significant separation between the contenders and pretenders over these next few weeks.
This is also the time when we begin to see if some early-season struggles or even hot starts are legit or mere flashes in the pan. For the former, that could create some awkward situations, particularly as we continue to gauge the temperature of the head coach’s hot seat or coordinator duties.
Both of those could be at the forefront of the headlines by the time we wrap up Week 5 in the NFL, which we discuss in depth below, along with other storylines that could sprout out of the upcoming slate.
Nick Sirianni has the hottest seat in the NFL after London blowout
The Philadelphia Eagles might be on the verge of blowing it up. The club is off to a teetering 2-2 start to the regular season, has been dealt with an onslaught of injuries, and saw Lane Johnson retire this week. That said, the biggest indicator that something may be afoot is that they just shipped away starting interior lineman Cam Jurgens to the Ravens. For a team still trying to be in the Super Bowl conversation, it’s a bit striking to see them trade someone of Jurgens’ caliber, even if there are solid reasons for Howie Roseman to make such a move.
And that brings us to this weekend, when Philadelphia will be in London taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars. In my eyes, this has the makings of a Jags blowout win. Jacksonville is essentially the polar opposite of the Eagles right now offensively. They have the third-best third-down conversion rate (51.1%) in the NFL entering Week 5, the second-best red zone touchdown rate (81.8%), and Trevor Lawrence has the second-highest passer rating in the NFL (min. 100 pass attempts). If they keep that up, the Eagles offense, which hasn’t converted a third down in its last 17 attempts, could be lapped.
Philadelphia would fall under .500, and Nick Sirianni would be 5-8 since Week 12 of last season (including playoffs). The head coach’s seat would be as hot as it’s arguably ever been, and this Eagles ownership hasn’t been shy about making bold decisions if they believe it’s in the best interest of the team.
Justin Herbert is sacked a season-high vs. Broncos
The Chargers are in dire straits right now, as they enter Week 5 at 0-4 and have been lifeless on the offensive side of the ball. Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) and has been the second-most pressured quarterback (46.5%) in the NFL. Herbert’s 12 sacks taken are also tied for the second-most in the league.
With injuries to the offensive line, this sets the stage for him to be under siege more than he’s been all year. L.A. already knows it’ll be without starting left tackle Rashawn Slater, who will miss time due to a high ankle sprain. On top of Slater, starting right tackle Joe Alt is also not expected to play on Sunday due to a neck injury. Alt was listed as a non-participant in Wednesday’s opening injury report. Even with those two, the Chargers’ offensive line was surrendering loads of pressure onto Herbert, and that’s only going to get worse with them out of the picture and the Chargers squaring off against the Broncos.
Denver’s pass rush isn’t as prolific as it was last season, but it is still 11th in the NFL in pressure rate (38.9%). Over the last two seasons combined, it has piled up the most sacks (76) in the NFL.
Through four weeks, the most Herbert had been sacked in a game was four, which came last week against Seattle. At SoFi Stadium on Sunday, the Chargers QB will endure a new season high in sacks with the Broncos tagging him at least five times, just as they did the last time they faced him in Week 3 of last season.
Jacoby Brissett throws for 350 yards vs. Lions
The Lions defense is unquestionably the worst in the NFL right now. Their secondary is coming off a Week 4 showing where they were demolished by Bryce Young, who threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns. Detroit is giving up the second-most points per game in the NFL (31.8) and the most total yards (423.8) per game this season. The Lions’ 1,216 total passing yards allowed are also the most in the league, while their 110.4 passer rating allowed is the fourth-highest. No matter which way you slice it, it’s putrid.
That should be music to Jacoby Brissett’s ears as he’s eager to rebound from a three-interception performance against the Giants last week. Judging by the opponent he’s facing, he’s primed to throw it all over the yard.
So far this season, Brissett’s high in passing yards is 280, which came back in Week 3 against the San Francisco 49ers. However, if you go back to last season when he became the starter in Arizona, he’s had several eye-popping yardage totals. Brissett went over 300 yards four times and even had a 452-yard passing game thrown in there as well. I believe we get an aerial avalanche from Brissett, which gets him to 350 passing yards on Sunday.
Arizona has the weapons for Brissett to pile up yardage, particularly Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. McBride could go berserk as the Lions are giving up the most receptions and receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, and the second-most receiving yards. Meanwhile, Michael Wilson could follow in Tetairoa McMillan’s shoes, who torched the Lions last Sunday to the tune of 14 catches, 192 yards and two touchdowns.
Because the Cardinals are the fourth-worst scoring defense (29.3 points per game allowed) in the NFL this season, Brissett could be forced even more into a pass-heavy game script.
Gambling nugget to note: Jacoby Brissett’s O/U passing yard prop is set at 269.5 yards (-111 to the Over). Brissett is +115 to reach 280 passing yards, +145 to reach 290 passing yards, +183 to reach 300 passing yards, and +567 to reach 350 passing yards (via DraftKings Sportsbook).
Sean Payton ousts Davis Webb as offensive playcaller
The leash is getting shorter and shorter for Broncos offensive coordinator David Webb and his ability to call the plays in Denver. The Broncos are 2-2 on the season, which finds them in third place in the AFC West. Part of the reason for their .500 mark through the first month has been their sluggish starts on offense. Denver is scoring the fewest first-half points (13 total points) in the NFL this season and has only stayed afloat because their 61 total second-half points scored are the fifth-highest in the league.
So far this season, the Broncos (with Webb calling the plays) are averaging 18.5 points per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Last year, when Joe Lombardi was the OC and Sean Payton was calling the plays, Denver averaged 23.6 points per game, which ranked 14th.
Meanwhile, Bo Nix appears to be regressing under this new leadership. Over the first two years of his career, Nix’s air yards per pass attempt were 7.3. This year, it’s down to 5.4. The former first-round quarterback’s yards per attempt this season (6.1), completion percentage (60%), and passer rating (80.4) are all on pace for career lows. His turnover-worthy throw rate of 3.7% is also on pace for a career-high.
Even if Denver wins on Sunday to improve to 3-2, it’s on the table that Sean Payton takes back the play sheet from Webb if the offense continues to sputter, particularly entering a short week where they’ll host the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football. Moreover, if the Broncos are upset by the Chargers and the offense is a key reason for the defeat, it’ll be curtains for Webb’s days as the play caller.
49ers establish themselves as clear Super Bowl favorite
Despite a shaky 2-2 start to the season, the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LXI remains the Los Angeles Rams. While it’s certainly a long season and there’s plenty of time to go before we kick off that championship matchup at SoFi Stadium, I’m surprised L.A. has held onto being the favorite this long. With that in mind, I think we see the odds flip this weekend with a new NFC West team claiming the top spot. The San Francisco 49ers — currently tied for the third-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +850 (DraftKings Sportsbook) — have been arguably the best team in the NFL through the first month, jumping out to a perfect 4-0 record thanks to strong play on both sides of the ball.
In spite of an array of injuries, the Niners’ offense has the lowest percentage of plays that have lost yards this season (2.2%). Meanwhile, the defense has allowed the lowest percentage of explosive plays (3.5%). Both don’t just lead the league; they’re also the lowest for any team through four games since 2000.
Now, San Francisco heads into Seattle to face the defending Super Bowl champs, who are allowing the fewest yards per play defensively in the league. It’s a true heavyweight matchup.
While the Seahawks are favored, it’s only by 2.5, so the oddsmakers are telling us that even with a major home-field advantage, the margins on this game are razor-thin. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see the Niners leaving Lumen Field with a victory and, in turn, seeing their odds catapult to the top as they stamp themselves as the bona fide new favorites to win the Super Bowl.